A Region Under Watch: Latin America in the Age of Strategic Competition provides an outlook for Latin America as we begin 2026. Amid modest economic growth, persistent social pressures, and intensifying geopolitical competition there is much to consider. While the region has avoided outright crisis, growth remains too weak to reduce inequality, rebuild the middle class, or relieve political fatigue. Limited fiscal space, low productivity, and institutional fragility constrain governments’ ability to meet rising demands for security, social spending, infrastructure, and climate adaptation. These challenges are unfolding amid a shifting global landscape defined by nearshoring, fragmented supply chains, and a more multipolar order.
Renewed U.S.–China competition, a more transactional U.S. policy posture, and China’s deepening economic footprint are reshaping strategic choices across the hemisphere—from ports and digital infrastructure to energy and critical minerals. Further, the divergent trajectories, from Brazil and Mexico’s balancing acts to volatility in the Andean region and Central America, and the profound regional shock triggered by the removal of Nicolas Maduro and Venezuela’s political uncertainty is examined.
The rapidly evolving situation in Venezuela and the hemispheric repercussions following the removal of Nicolás Maduro is assessed in the context of regional diplomacy and U.S. intervention. Understanding the risks and opportunities this moment creates for Venezuela’s political and economic outlook and transition, as well as its broader impact on sovereignty, alignment, and security debates across Latin America.
Prepared by Non-Resident Fellow, Thiago de Aragão, the brief offers a timely, in-depth perspective on what this moment means for governments, investors, and international partners and as 2026 unfolds across Latin America and the Caribbean.
What you will find in the report
- A strategic outlook for Latin America as the region enters 2026 amid modest growth and rising geopolitical competition.
- An assessment of how U.S.–China rivalry is reshaping trade, infrastructure, energy, and digital ecosystems across the hemisphere.
- Analysis of nearshoring, fragmented supply chains, and Latin America’s role in a more multipolar global order.
- Country and sub-regional dynamics, including Brazil, Mexico, the Andean region, Central America, and the Caribbean.
- An in-depth examination of Venezuela following the removal of Nicolás Maduro and its regional and geopolitical repercussions.
- Implications for policymakers, investors, and international partners navigating political risk and strategic alignment.
Key Questions
- Why has Latin America avoided crisis but failed to achieve inclusive growth heading into 2026?
- How is renewed U.S.–China competition influencing strategic decisions on ports, energy, digital infrastructure, and critical minerals?
- What does a more transactional U.S. policy posture mean for Latin American governments and regional diplomacy?
- How are countries balancing autonomy, non-alignment, and economic dependence amid geopolitical pressure?
- What risks and opportunities emerge from Venezuela’s political transition after the removal of Nicolás Maduro?
- How could Venezuela’s situation reshape debates on sovereignty, intervention, and regional security?
- What does this evolving landscape mean for investors, governments, and international partners operating in Latin America?